Exclusive Analysis Launches FORESIGHT 2010

Forecasts Global Business Risks and Opportunities

LONDON, December 2 - Exclusive Analysis, the leading specialist intelligence
company that forecasts commercially relevant political and violent risks
worldwide, launches FORESIGHT 2010, a comprehensive roundup of forecasts for
2010 that will inform the international business community and government
policy makers in the coming year.

FORESIGHT 2010 includes:

- AL-QAEDA: WHAT IS THE CURRENT THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC ATTACK?

Al-Qaeda leaders are finding themselves under mounting pressure to
demonstrate the movement's continued viability whilst strengthened networks
connecting Pakistani tribal and city militant groups are increasing their
ability to mount an attack. The US will be a preferred target, but the most
likely site for a major al-Qaeda led attack in 2010 will be Western Europe.
Jihadists are also likely to attempt attacks on non-western powers in 2010,
building a commercial presence in the Muslim world, especially in the energy
sector.

- AFGHANISTAN: A 360 DEGREE STRATEGIC RISK REVIEW

The insurgency is likely to grow increasingly fractured, with
the eastern and southern insurgencies becoming more distinct in terms of
tactics, leadership and ideology. This is likely to make counter-insurgency
and dialogue efforts less effective in the coming year. Violence IS expected
to rise, most dramatically in the east and the south of Afghanistan. We
presently see almost no connection between the military campaign in
Afghanistan and US and European domestic security.

- IRAN: RISKING FURTHER U.N. SANCTIONS?

President Obama will be under pressure from the US Congress to take
further unilateral sanctions on Iran. However, Russia and China would be
likely to veto further UN sanctions. Whilst Israel's public position is that
it will take military action in order to prevent Iran from acquiring a
nuclear military capability, EA assesses that Israel lacks the ability to
generate enough air sorties from close enough to destroy a useful amount of
Iran's very well dispersed and defended nuclear programme. Previous
unsubstantiated reports on the alleged death of Iran's Supreme Leader
Khamenei raise the question of succession, especially since he has been
uniquely able to oversee check and balances on the influence of key players.

NOTES TO EDITORS

For more information, please go to: www.exclusive-analysis.com

MEDIA

Please contact Julia Walker at Midas on +44(0)20-7361-7860 /
julia.walker@midaspr.co.uk

MEDIA: Please contact Julia Walker at Midas on +44(0)20-7361-7860 / julia.walker at midaspr.co.uk