BMI India Retail Report Q3 2010

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The Q310 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR16.3trn (US$353.0bn) in 2010 to INR25.0trn (US$543.2bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India’s second and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population to improve mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 11.4%. India’s nominal GDP is a forecast at US$1.52trn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 7.8% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 1.19bn in 2010 to 1.25bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by over 75% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,238. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$793 in 2010 to US$1,160 in 2014.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail market. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-orientated multinationals.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 154% to reach US$15.29bn by 2014. This is a consequence of India’s dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$29.86bn in 2010, with over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$3.28bn. The latter is predicted to be the fastest growing retail sub-sector over the forecast period, albeit from a low base. BMI forecasts that sales will reach US$6.18bn by 2014, an increase of 88.5%.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth in the region, followed by China. For India, its forecast market share of 13.9% in 2010 is expected to increase to 14.3% by 2014.
Table of Content
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Retail Business Environment SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
India’s Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Sector Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: India GDP Contribution To Growth, 2007-2015
Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Regional Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
Mass Grocery Retail
India Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: India MGR Sales By Format, 2007-2014
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 & 2018
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
India Consumer Electronics SWOT
India Electronics Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: Computer Sales, 2007-2014
Table: Total Desktop Sales, 2006-2007
Audio/Video
Table: AV Sales, 2007-2014
Mobile Handsets
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014
Industry Developments
Automotives
India Autos SWOT
Market Overview: Asia
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: India Autos Industry Production & Sales, 2007-2014
Table: India Autos Exports & Imports, 2007-2014
Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2001
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources

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