Johnson Matthey Releases "PLATINUM 2009 INTERIM REVIEW"
By Johnson Matthey Plc, PRNEMonday, November 16, 2009
LONDON, November 17 - PLATINUM
Platinum Market Forecast to be in Surplus by 140,000 Ounces in 2009
Net global platinum demand is forecast to decrease by 4.4 per cent to
5.92 million ounces in 2009, according to Johnson Matthey's "PLATINUM 2009
INTERIM REVIEW", released today. Gross autocatalyst demand is set to drop by
a third to 2.48 million ounces due to cuts in vehicle production in most
regions. Industrial demand will fall due to soft consumer demand and
destocking of products and materials in many sectors. The lower price of
platinum is expected to boost jewellery and physical investment demand to
2.45 million ounces and 630,000 ounces respectively. Platinum supplies are
expected to increase by 110,000 ounces to 6.06 million ounces despite a fall
in underlying mine production. As a result, the platinum market is forecast
to be in surplus by 140,000 oz in 2009.
PLATINUM SUPPLY TO GROW BY 1.9 PER CENT TO 6.06 MILLION OUNCES
Global platinum supplies are forecast to climb by 110,000 oz to a total
of 6.06 million ounces. Sales of metal from South Africa are expected to rise
by 210,000 oz to 4.73 million ounces. Although a mixture of safety issues,
shaft closures and industrial unrest have led to a reduction in tonnes of ore
milled by the industry, the sale of metal from refined stocks means that
South African supplies will rise in 2009. Platinum supplies from North
America and Russia are set to fall to 255,000 oz and 745,000 oz respectively.
AUTOCATALYST PLATINUM DEMAND TO FALL BY A THIRD TO 2.48 MILLION OUNCES
Gross autocatalyst platinum demand is forecast to decline by 33.0 per
cent to roughly 2.48 million ounces in 2009. European autocatalyst demand for
platinum is expected to fall by 45.7 per cent, or 900,000 oz, to 1.07 million
ounces. The effect on demand of a sharp reduction in vehicle production has
been exacerbated by a short term decline in the market share of diesel
passenger cars. Demand will fall in Japan, North America and the Rest of the
World region reflecting a fall in vehicle production volumes in each area.
Chinese platinum autocatalyst demand will rise due to a strong performance by
the automotive sector there.
NET JEWELLERY DEMAND TO RISE BY ALMOST 80 PER CENT TO AN
ANNUAL 2.45 MILLION OUNCES DUE TO RECORD LEVELS OF CHINESE PURCHASING
The lower platinum price has reignited demand in the Chinese jewellery
sector, encouraging the industry to replenish and further build its stocks,
particularly in the first half of 2009. Improved profit margins have
attracted new manufacturers and retailers into platinum jewellery while a
lower retail price has driven consumer purchases higher. As a result, demand
in China is forecast to leap by 900,000 oz to a record 1.75 million ounces in
2009. Net Japanese jewellery industry demand for platinum has risen as the
fall in the platinum price has depressed recycling volumes from second hand
jewellery. Demand from European and U.S. jewellers has declined due to the
impact of the recession on consumer sales.
PLATINUM EXPECTED TO TRADE BETWEEN $1,280 AND $1,550 DURING THE NEXT SIX
MONTHS
2010 will bring some recovery in automotive and industrial demand for
platinum as the world economy improves, but supplies are not likely to grow
to the same extent and the market could move into a modest deficit. These
positive fundamentals will support the platinum price. Much of the price rise
over the last twelve months has been driven by a weak Dollar, a strong gold
price and by growing investor interest and if these trends continue the price
may trade as high as $1,550 during the next six months. However, if the
Dollar strengthens, or the price of gold falls, then the platinum price could
suffer, falling to $1,280 during the same period.
PALLADIUM
PALLADIUM MARKET FORECAST TO BE IN OVERSUPPLY BY 655,000 OUNCES IN 2009
Net global palladium demand is forecast to decline by 3.8 per cent to
6.52 million ounces this year according to Johnson Matthey. Autocatalyst
demand will be depressed by lower light duty vehicle production in most
regions. Electronics, dental and chemical sector purchases are also set to
fall due to the effects of the economic slowdown. However, the low palladium
price will boost physical investment demand and jewellery demand will rise
slightly. Total supplies of palladium, including the sale of 960,000 ounces
from Russian state stocks, are expected to fall by 1.8 per cent to 7.18
million ounces. The palladium market is therefore forecast to be in
oversupply in 2009 by 655,000 ounces.
TOTAL SUPPLIES OF PALLADIUM EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO 7.18 MILLION OUNCES
Palladium supplies are forecast to shrink by 135,000 oz to 7.18 million
ounces in 2009. Sales from primary production in North America and Russia are
set to decline. Palladium sales from South African producers are forecast to
rise, despite a decrease in underlying production of palladium in
concentrate. Sales of palladium from the remainder of the Russian state
stocks, previously deposited in Switzerland, are expected to contribute a
further 960,000 oz to supplies.
GROSS PALLADIUM AUTOCATALYST DEMAND FORECAST TO FALL TO 3.90 MILLION
OUNCES DESPITE ROBUST PERFORMANCE IN CHINA AND EUROPE
Gross palladium demand for use in catalytic converters is expected to
decrease by 12.7 per cent to 3.90 million ounces in 2009. Demand in Japan,
North America and the Rest of the World region will fall, in line with lower
light duty vehicle production. Strong growth in domestic vehicle sales is
likely to boost Chinese demand by some 135,000 oz this year. European demand
is forecast to fall only marginally as palladium benefits from a short term
rise in the market share of the gasoline engine and its steady introduction
into diesel exhaust aftertreatment.
NET PALLADIUM JEWELLERY DEMAND TO RISE TO 920,000 OUNCES
Net jewellery sector demand for palladium is expected to increase in
every region in 2009. Palladium continues to make steady progress as a
jewellery metal in Europe and North America. The Chinese jewellery market
appears to have stabilised and demand there will rise to 680,000 oz as
recycling rates decline.
PALLADIUM SET TO TRADE BETWEEN $290 AND $390 DURING THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
The existence of a surplus in the palladium market has weighed on the
price over recent years. However, investors seem aware of the imbalance
between demand and current mine production and are bullish for the palladium
price over the longer term. Demand for palladium will benefit from a recovery
in vehicle production volumes and if the funds continue to invest the
palladium price could rise to $390 during the next six months. However, any
weakness in gold and platinum prices or a strengthening of the Dollar may
undermine the price with the possibility that palladium could trade down to
$290 during the same period.
For background information on Johnson Matthey see www.matthey.com
and on Platinum 2009 Interim Review see
www.platinum.matthey.com/uploaded_files/press_release_background.pdf
For further information contact: David Jollie +44(0)7967-278020, Jeremy
Coombes +44(0)7967-278012, Peter Duncan +44(0)7967-278236
For further information contact: David Jollie +44(0)7967-278020, Jeremy Coombes +44(0)7967-278012, Peter Duncan +44(0)7967-278236
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