Platinum 2010 Interim Review
By Johnson Matthey, PRNEMonday, November 15, 2010
PLATINUM MARKET TO BE IN SMALL SURPLUS IN 2010
LONDON, November 16, 2010 - PLATINUM MARKET FORECAST TO BE IN SURPLUS BY 290,000 OUNCES IN 2010
Gross platinum demand is forecast to rise by 11 per cent to
7.56 million ounces in 2010, according to Johnson Matthey in "PLATINUM 2010
INTERIM REVIEW", released today. Recycling of platinum in the autocatalyst,
jewellery and electrical sectors is expected to increase by 31 per cent to
1.84 million ounces. Supplies of platinum from current mining operations are
set to remain almost flat at 6.01 million ounces. As a result, net platinum
demand is expected to increase by 6 per cent to 5.72 million ounces, putting
the market in a small annual surplus of 290,000 ounces.
SUPPLIES OF PLATINUM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST FLAT IN 2010
South African production of platinum is forecast to fall by 1
per cent to 4.59 million ounces as a series of safety stoppages and supply
interruptions affect output. Supplies from North America are expected to fall
by 19 per cent to 210,000 ounces mainly due to strikes. Supplies in Russia
are expected to rise to 810,000 ounces due to improved productivity and
processing of surface materials. Expansion at mines in Zimbabwe is set to
increase the country's output to 280,000 ounces.
AUTOCATALYST PLATINUM DEMAND TO RISE AS DIESEL VEHICLE MARKET
RECOVERS
Global demand for platinum in autocatalysts is expected to
strengthen by 37 per cent to 2.99 million ounces as vehicle production
recovers from a dismal 2009. Gross demand for platinum in European
autocatalysts is expected to increase by 46 per cent to 1.42 million ounces
in an improved economic and credit environment. The ending of various
national car scrappage incentives in Europe and a return to fleet vehicle
buying is expected to favour purchases of diesel vehicles, and therefore
platinum demand for exhaust after treatment. Recovery of platinum from spent
autocatalysts is expected to rise by 32 per cent to 1.1 million ounces
stimulated by higher platinum prices and the returns from car scrappage
schemes.
INDUSTRIAL DEMAND TO GROW AS ECONOMIC RECOVERY GAINS MOMENTUM
Improved economic conditions in 2010 are expected to stimulate
purchases of platinum across a range of industrial sectors, lifting gross
industrial demand to 1.72 million ounces. Platinum demand in the glass
industry is expected to recover strongly to 365,000 ounces as consumer
purchases of LCD TVs and monitors drive the building of new manufacturing
lines for LCD glass in Asia. Demand for platinum in the electronics sector is
also forecast to rise, increasing to 225,000 ounces. Higher rates of factory
utilisation, boosted by increased demand for consumer products, are
anticipated to lift demand for process catalyst, bringing chemical demand for
platinum to 450,000 ounces.
SOFTER DEMAND FOR PLATINUM JEWELLERY AS PRICES REMAIN HIGH
Gross global demand for platinum in the jewellery sector is
forecast to drop by 14 per cent in 2010 to 2.42 million ounces as retailers
and consumers reduce purchasing in response to higher prices in 2010. Demand
for platinum jewellery in China is expected to fall by 21 per cent to 1.65
million ounces in 2010 as some consumers defer purchases. Higher platinum
prices are anticipated to lift recycling levels by 30 per cent to 735,000
ounces.
INVESTMENT DEMAND FOR PLATINUM SET TO DECLINE
Despite the popularity of platinum exchange traded funds
(ETFs), physical investment demand for platinum is forecast to fall by 34 per
cent to 435,000 ounces in 2010. Higher prices are expected to reduce demand
for platinum coins and bars, and encourage redemption of ETF positions.
PLATINUM EXPECTED TO TRADE ON AVERAGE AT $1,750 IN THE NEXT
SIX MONTHS
With a recovering global economy driving autocatalyst and
industrial demand, and some growth in platinum production, Johnson Matthey
expects the platinum market to be close to balance in 2011. However,
uncertainties remain over the impact of sovereign debt, tighter credit and
national austerity measures on economic growth. The recent performance of
platinum suggests that its price is being steered by speculative futures
positions, ETF holdings and external influences such as the US Dollar and the
gold price, rather than supply-demand fundamentals. Johnson Matthey forecasts
that platinum will trade between $1,550 and $1,900 per ounce and will average
$1,750 per ounce during the next six months.
PALLADIUM
PALLADIUM MARKET TO BE CLOSE TO BALANCE IN 2010
The palladium market is forecast to be in a very small annual
surplus of 45,000 ounces in 2010. Gross demand for palladium is set to rise
by 15 per cent to 8.94 million ounces in 2010 on the back of strong
automotive and industrial demand. Recovery of palladium from scrapped
autocatalysts, jewellery and electronics will increase by 29 per cent to 1.85
million ounces. Net demand is therefore forecast to increase by 12 per cent
to 7.10 million ounces.
SUPPLIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST FLAT AT 7.14 MILLION OUNCES
Supplies of palladium are set to be almost flat at 7.14
million ounces, an increase of just 40,000 ounces compared with last year.
Production from current South African, Russian and Zimbabwean mining
operations is expected to rise slightly in 2010. Sales of metal from Russian
state stocks are estimated to contribute around 1 million ounces to supplies
this year. North American supplies are expected to drop by 26 per cent to
560,000 ounces, mostly offsetting the growth in supplies in other regions.
AUTOMOTIVE PALLADIUM DEMAND SET TO INCREASE BY 27 PER CENT
Demand for palladium in autocatalysts is forecast to increase
by 27 per cent to 5.15 million ounces in 2010. Recovery of light duty vehicle
production in all regions, and particularly rapid growth in production of
gasoline vehicles in China, is expected to drive this increase in demand.
Recovery of palladium from spent autocatalysts is forecast to increase by 37
per cent to 1.32 million ounces as a higher palladium price and car scrappage
schemes stimulate recycling.
INDUSTRIAL PALLADIUM DEMAND TO BENEFIT FROM RECOVERY IN ELECTRICAL
SECTOR
Gross demand for palladium in industrial applications is
expected to rise by 8 per cent to 2.49 million ounces, returning close to its
2008 level. Increased consumer purchasing of electrical items is set to boost
demand for palladium in multi-layer ceramic capacitors, ubiquitous in
consumer electronics. Recycling of palladium from scrapped electrical devices
is forecast to increase by 11 per cent driven mainly by legislation on
electronic waste. Chemical demand for palladium is expected to benefit from
the wider recovery in the manufacturing sector in 2010.
PALLADIUM INVESTMENT DEMAND TO REMAIN STRONG, JEWELLERY DEMAND TO
FALL
Identifiable physical investment demand for palladium,
particularly in exchange traded funds, is expected to rise to 670,000 ounces
in 2010. Redemptions in the more mature funds are anticipated to limit the
increase in new demand. Demand for palladium jewellery is forecast to fall by
19 per cent in 2010 to 630,000 ounces, with most of the decline due to weaker
trade interest in China.
PALLADIUM PRICE TO BE SUPPORTED BY FUNDAMENTALS AND INVESTMENT
With steadily increasing automotive and industrial demand, the
outlook for palladium is mainly positive. However, concerns around sovereign
debt and austerity measures in developed countries could temper economic
growth. China, the second biggest market for palladium in 2010, could also
significantly affect the supply-demand balance if economic growth in that
country were to slow. If no shipments of Russian state stocks of palladium
take place in 2011, the palladium market will be in substantial deficit. With
these tight supply-demand fundamantals, investors continue to see palladium
as relatively undervalued. Continuing speculative investment interest could
move the price substantially, and Johnson Matthey forecasts that the price of
palladium will average $710 per ounce in the next six months, trading as high
as $850 in the period, with the price unlikely to fall below $550.
Note: "PLATINUM 2010 Interim Review" includes gross demand and
recycling data for the auto, electrical and jewellery sectors, from which net
demand can be derived.
Platinum 2010 is Johnson Matthey's free survey of platinum group metals
supply and demand. It can be downloaded as an electronic file or can be
ordered in printed form at
www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/pgmreview.html
Johnson Matthey is the world's leading authority on the
production, supply and use of platinum and the other metals of the platinum
group. The company's main activities include the manufacture of
autocatalysts, process catalysts and speciality chemicals and the refining,
fabrication and marketing of platinum group metals.
For further information contact:
Mark Bedford +44-(0)7967-278231
Neill Swan +44-(0)7967-278014
Jonathan Butler +44-(0)7967-278024
Jeremy Coombes +44-(0)7967-278012
For further information contact: Mark Bedford, +44 (0)7967-278231; Neill Swan, +44(0)7967-278014; Jonathan Butler, +44(0)7967-278024; Jeremy Coombes, +44(0)7967-278012
Tags: Johnson Matthey, London, November 16, United Kingdom