MarketsandMarket's Integrated Patient-based Forecasting Solution for Pharmaceutical Industry, Mainly for Pipeline Products

By Marketsandmarkets, PRNE
Tuesday, December 15, 2009

WILMINGTON, Delaware, December 16 - While many of the pharma companies are struggling to outsource their
accurate forecast models for new and inmarket drugs, MarketsandMarkets on the
other hand provides integrated patient-based forecast solutions to various
players. These pharma forecasting solutions are designed for phase I, phase
II, as well as phase III. These have a substantial impact on pricing, launch,
product life cycle management, market entry strategy, manufacturing planning,
sales force, promotion, and planning. The leading pharma companies now
endorse the forecast solution provided by MarketsandMarkets as the accurate
forecast model, comprising of significant cost benefit analysis for an annual
contract basis. The forecasts are based on epidemiology and actual patients
on drugs. The primary and secondary research analytics underlying the
forecast include:

    - Epidemiology analysis
    - Treated patients best fit trending
    - Polypharmacy ratio analysis
    - Competitive landscape analysis
    - Analogue analysis for uptake, time to peak, and generic erosion
    - Conjoint / discrete choice / attribute analysis
    - Calibration based on actual sales and impact of various events

The treated patient pool potential is determined by prevalence,
incidence, diagnosis, treatment, cure, and mortality rate. The treated
patient pool is also back-calculated simultaneously from historic and present
product sales. Trending and smoothening takes into account seasonality and
the impact of other events on sale. The conjoint / discrete choice analysis
uses primary research to estimate peak patient share for new products. In
absence of primary research due to budget / time constraints, an attribute
analysis is done using secondary research and consumer inputs to estimate
peak patient share for new products.

The peak patient share calculation mechanism is calibrated based on
shares of existing products. Ratio of treated patient pool, based on patient
on products and epi, gives polypharmacy ratio. Analogues are identified based
on disease area, TPP, MoA, order of entry, and market dynamics to estimate
time to peak, shape of uptake curve, generic erosion, and impact of other
events. Share exchange / cannibalization is done based on fair-share approach
or inputs from brand team along with secondary and primary research.

Simple and transparent VB- and Excel-based forecast models: models are
developed based on forecast complexity and the functional need of end-user.
Our team has expertise in designing and developing VB- and Excel-based
forecast / market models.

Strong quality checks: - quality checks are built up at each stage to
ensure foolproof estimates, including triangulation of epi data from multiple
sources, calibration based on polypharmacy and actual historic sale,
calibration of peak patient share estimation model or peak patient share
based on share. Quality checks embedded in the Excel / VB formula in the
forecast model.

We have strong team of analysts with experience in executing advanced
forecasting projects for both pipeline and in-market products for the top
pharma companies globally.

For more details, click on:
www.marketsandmarkets.com/patient-based-forecasting.asp

About MarketsandMarkets

MarketsandMarkets is a research and consulting firm that publishes 120
market research reports per year. Each strategically analyzed report contains
250 pages of valuable market data, including more than 100 market data
summary tables and in-depth, five-level segmentation for each of the
products, services, applications, technologies, ingredients and stakeholders
categories. Our reports also analyze about 200 patents, over 50 companies and
micro markets that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Browse
all our 120 titles at www.marketsandmarkets.com.

    Contact:
    Ms. Sunita
    108, West 13th Street,
    Wilmington, DE, 19801
    County of New Castle
    Tel: +1-888-989-8004
    Email: sales@marketsandmarkets.com

Contact: Ms. Sunita, 108, West 13th Street, Wilmington, DE, 19801, County of New Castle, Tel: +1-888-989-8004, Email: sales at marketsandmarkets.com

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