ReportsnReports- Photovoltaics: Global Markets and Technologies

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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

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Global shipments of photovoltaic cells/modules reached 11,102 megawatts
in 2010, and are expected to reach 55,621 megawatts by 2015, a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38%.

The value of materials was estimated at $21.8 million in 2009 and $26.5
million
in 2010. Improved manufacturing methods and efficiencies will reduce
the actual quantities of materials used in solar cells and the value of
materials will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% through
2015 to reach a value of $47 million.

The value of global module shipments was estimated at $32.4 million in
2009 and $41.2 million in 2010. The value of shipments will grow at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2010 to 2015 because of
economies of scale and more efficient PV production methods, reaching a value
of nearly $78 million.

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

BCC Research's goal in conducting this study was to determine the
current status of the global market for photovoltaics (PV) and then to assess
their growth potential over a 6 year period from 2009 to 2010 and then to
2015. We last studied this industry in 2007 and were particularly interested
in the impact on the market by the surging global demand for energy,
improvements in solar PV technology, declining costs of photovoltaics, and
the impact of climate change on alternative fuels.

We were also interested in the impact of incentives on solar sales and
installations. Our key objective was to preset a comprehensive analysis of
the current market for PV and its future direction.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

PV technology dates back to the 1950s and the advent of the space
program, but the concerted effort to develop this technology for industry and
consumer use began during the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The eventual
stabilization of oil prices had a dampening effect on investment, tax
credits, and government funding for research and development.

Despite these challenges, the development of PV and its materials
continued and, in the late 1990s, R&D funding, cost-shared programs, and
industry activity once again increased. The growth rate of this technology
has been exceptionally high reaching annual growth rates of 30% to 40% and
higher over the past two decades.

In the first decade of the 21st century, oil prices surged as demand rose
at unprecedented rates. PV once again took the spotlight as an emerging
technology. Companies in the PV business have focused on reaching grid
parity-the meeting of cost for fossil fuel and solar energy-as a way to
broaden the scope of PV. Nations and individual states began to offer serious
incentives such as tariffs and tax credits for solar customers. Consequently,
we were interested in looking at this industry once again to chart its
potential.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

In this PV study, we present current and emerging technologies, detail
the industry structure, (e.g., the leading players in equipment and
materials) and analyze the competitive environment, major applications,
current and future markets, growth factors and detail shipments of cells and
modules for 2009, 2010 and 2015. This study will be of interest to those who
make semiconductor thin film manufacturing equipment, thin films, electrical
connectors, optical devices, and materials such as silicon, steel, polymers
and ceramics. It will also be of interest to those companies engaged in
nanotechnology and materials for flexible substrates.

In addition, utility companies, construction firms and those involved
with the space program will find its contents to be of value.

SCOPE OF REPORT

The scope of this study encompasses the major PV technologies
monocrystalline silicon, multicrystalline silicon, thin films (e.g.,
amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium diselenide), compound
semiconductor materials (e.g., gallium arsenide) and emerging approaches such
as nanostructured films, dye-sensitized solar cells and organic technologies.
BCC Research analyzes each technology, examines its current and potential
efficiency, assesses the current market status of each, examines its future
market impact, and presents shipments of PV cells and their values for 2009,
2010 and 2015. Various technical issues are discussed and a thorough economic
analysis of each technology and its impact on future growth is presented.

In this report, we analyze the PV industry on a global basis, including
manufacturing capacity and consumption by various regional markets. We
examine government funding and support, industry involvement, standards, the
environmental impact of solar energy, and the impact of incentives to use PV.
We also discuss the potential for applications-both grid-connected and
standalone. Projections of cell and module shipments by major applications
are also presented for the 3 years covered in our study.

METHODOLOGY

Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing
this study. BCC Research presents an analysis for each PV technology of the
number of cells, measured in megawatts, shipped in 2009. Our estimated values
are what manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our
surveys, we analyze the potential for each technology, and forecast shipments
for 2010 and 2015. We also analyze the cost of manufacturing the cells and
modules and present an estimated value of shipments over the forecast period.
We do the same analysis for key materials used in PV technology.

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