Rising Replikin Counts in E. Coli in Germany Since 2005 Preceded Current E. Coli Outbreak

By Bioradar Uk Ltd., PRNE
Monday, June 20, 2011

LONDON, June 21, 2011 -

style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; text-align: center">-
Synthetic Replikins Therapeutics for E. Coli Now Available for

Scientists Drs. Samuel and Elenore Bogoch of BioRadar UK Ltd.
announced that retrospective studies indicate that an increase in
Replikin Counts of the EHEC lethal strains of E. Coli preceded the
current E. Coli outbreak. These EHEC strains of E. Coli have been
studied in laboratories in Germany and elsewhere since 1995, and
genome sequences are consequently available in the public
databases.  Replikins are subsequences of the genome of an
infectious agent that have been correlated with virulence across a
range of diseases. Just as the H1N1 pandemic of 2009 was predicted
in 2008 because of Replikin Count increases, E. Coli Replikin
Counts (number of replikins per 100 amino acids) increased from 1.9
(+/- 1.2) in 2005, to 3.7 (+/- 2.9) in 2009 and to 14.2 in 2011.
Twenty-nine individual Replikin sequences identified so far,
conserved in the genomes of these hemorrhagic E. Coli strains, have
been traced back from 2011: twenty-five of them to 1999, and four
to 1995. To date, no other structures of infectious organisms have
been described that correlate quantitatively and temporally with
epidemic outbreaks, course, and lethality, and permit early or
advance strain-specific warning of such outbreaks.

Replikins are genomic structures related to rapid replication,
defined by Replikins Ltd. and BioRadar’s proprietary and patented
algorithm as peptides 7 to 50 amino acids long, containing two or
more lysines, six to ten amino acids apart, at least one histidine,
and a lysine concentration of 6% or more. As Replikins increase in
number, they have been observed by linear and three-dimensional
x-ray diffraction studies to expand and spread on the surface of
the hemagglutinin gene of the influenza virus.

How reliable a signal is an increase in Replikin Count? To date,
the Replikins science team has studied over 30,000 genomic
sequences from a period of 94 years as published in PubMed.
Statistically significant increases in Replikin Count (p<0.001)
are consistently followed by or co-temporal with outbreaks. In a
recent confirmation of reliability, the increases in Replikin Count
were submitted for independent examination for the years 2002 to
2008, the years on which the 2008 prediction of the outbreak of the
2009 H1N1 pandemic had been based. The Replikin Count increases
were found to be highly significant, namely, p values a) by t-test
= 1/10 to the 130th power, b) by linear regression = 1/10 to the
24th power and 1/10 to the 29th power, c) by Spearman correlation
< 2/10 to the 16th power, d) by Wilcoxon rank sum<1/10 to the
16th power, and e) by multiple regression adjusting for correlation
between consecutive years = 2/10 to the 22nd power .

E. Coli now joins the group of pathogens in which outbreaks
and/or increased lethality were found to be preceded by significant
Replikin Count increases (p<0.001) in the pathogen one year or
more in advance (Replikins Press <replikins.com>).
These pathogenic outbreaks include influenza H5N1 (1997-2011), the
influenza H1N1 pandemic (2002-2009), and its recurrence (2010),
West Nile Virus outbreaks (2000-2008), Foot and Mouth Disease
outbreaks (2009-2011), and the SARS outbreak (2002-2003).
Rising E. Coli Replikin Counts also preceded rising mortality
rates. This relationship has been found previously in malaria (Pl.
Falciparum), in Taura Syndrome shrimp virus, where it predicted
lethality, in H1N1 influenza, and in H5N1, where together with the
increased lethality, the geographic localization was correctly
predicted to be Indonesia (2006-2008).

The clinical significance of having a replikin count advanced
warning is that such advanced warning will give health authorities
more time to organize public health efforts and formulate vaccines
even under old vaccine technology methods.  Replikins vaccine
and therapeutic technology (consisting of solid phase synthesis in
seven days) dramatically reduce the time and cost of production and
accelerate distribution to a larger percent of the world’s
population as the solid phase synthesis vaccines do not require

Before the outbreak, in the case of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, one
year advance warning was provided by the Replikin technology. The
TransFlu™ Replikins Vaccine was synthesized in 7 days and
successfully tested in animals.*  After the H1N1 outbreak
occurred in April 2009, the Replikins Count of the virus, was
determined every few days ‘real-time’ in the 12,806 sequences
published on PubMed throughout the course of the pandemic
(2009-2010). There are two Replikin genes, one for infectivity and
one for lethality.  The virus Replikin Count indicated that
while infectivity would persist, lethality was rapidly declining.
If this information had been more broadly utilized, much concern
and cost could have been averted. If the rising Replikin Count of
E. Coli in Germany had been observed two years ago, specific
preventive and therapeutic countermeasures could have been
implemented at that time. Even now, after the current E. Coli
outbreak has begun, the projected course can be better defined with
BioRadar genomic sequence analysis and Replikin countermeasures are
available for testing.

For information regarding the BioRadar Global Surveillance
System™ and on synthetic Replikins vaccines and therapeutics now
available for testing, contact href="mailto:aborsanyi@replikins.com">aborsanyi@replikins.com.

*Jackwood MW, et al. Efficacy of a Replikin peptide Vaccine
Against Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5 Virus. Avian Diseases
53(4): 613-617, 2009.

Samuel Bogoch, MD, PhD, +1-646-320-5910, sbogoch at replikins.com

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