The Longer-Term Outlook for Travel & Tourism is Still Bright, WTTC Says

Although its Contribution to Global GDP has Slipped Further in 2009, and the Recovery Will be Slow, Travel & Tourism Remains a Key Engine of Growth

LONDON, November 10 - 2009 has seen the worst recession since the 1930s, with global GDP
contracting by an estimated 1.3%. While there are tentative signs that the
economic cycle is now turning, driven by unprecedented policy stimuli,
reviving credit markets and recovering asset prices, recovery is expected to
be gradual - and a second dip into recession early next year cannot yet be
ruled out.

"As a result, Travel & Tourism Economy GDP is now forecast to decline by
5.5% in 2009," said Jean-Claude Baumgarten, President & CEO of the World
Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), announcing WTTC's latest forecasts at World
Travel Market yesterday. Baumgarten was joined by Adrian Cooper, Managing
Director of Oxford Economics, WTTC's research partner.

"This means that Travel & Tourism's contribution to global GDP will fall
this year to less than 9.3% from 9.6% in 2008," Baumgarten noted, "and this
is also down from the 9.4% predicted at the start of 2009.

"Moreover," he added, "activity in 2010 is likely to be flat at best."

Nevertheless, the updated forecasts from WTTC and Oxford Economics show
that there has been no change in the projected long-term trend growth of 4%
per annum forecast for Travel & Tourism over the coming decade, making it a
key engine of expansion in the longer term.

"In the aftermath of the financial crisis that started last summer, the
global economy contracted at its steepest rate in post-war history," said
Adrian Cooper. "However, recent indicators suggest that the global economy
has passed its trough and some forecasts for 2010 are now being upwardly
revised.

"Key recovery drivers are unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli,
reviving credit markets and recovering asset prices," Cooper explained. "But
there are good reasons for caution and a second dip into recession early in
2010 - what we call the double-dip scenario - cannot yet be ruled out."

Travel & Tourism Economy GDP growth in 2008 slowed to 1%, WTTC announced,
as significant momentum was lost in the second half of the year, and the
deterioration intensified early in 2009, resulting in:

    - International air passenger traffic contracting by 6% year on year in
      the first eight months of 2009;
    - Monthly data for 68 countries covering 80% of global tourist trips
      showing overnight visitor arrivals on a similar path (January to
      September growth is estimated at 6% year on year); and
    - Widespread losses across all regions, although currency effects and
      domestic tourism have provided some support.

Nevertheless, there are tentative recovery signs for Travel & Tourism
with the most recent data indicating that the worst has passed. Given the
deeper-than-expected global recession and tourism indicators for the year so
far, the contraction in Travel & Tourism activity is now expected to be
larger than anticipated in January. Corporate travel cuts, household
curtailment of leisure travel (especially international trips) and the
postponement of investment plans for tourism infrastructure have all been as
bad as expected.

"Travel & Tourism clearly continues to face challenging times," said
Baumgarten, "especially if the tentative recovery underway loses momentum or
if the A(H1N1) influenza pandemic were to intensify and become more virulent.

In the face of such difficult circumstances, Travel & Tourism requires
the global policy environment to be supportive, Baumgarten stressed.
Policy-makers therefore need to be wary about placing extra burdens on this
previously dynamic sector at this crucial time when profitability is already
under severe pressure.

"If the challenging times facing Travel & Tourism are ignored by
governments," he said, "then its role in employment creation and poverty
reduction could be seriously undermined."

For further information, please contact Anja Eckervogt, WTTC
Communications Co-ordinator, on +44(0)207-481-8007, or email
anja.eckervogt@wttc.org

For further information, please contact Anja Eckervogt, WTTC Communications Co-ordinator, on +44(0)207-481-8007, or email anja.eckervogt at wttc.org