Analysts Believe Sale of Deripaska's Rusal Stake in Norilsk Nickel to Russian Government Would Increase its Value
By Morozov Partners, PRNEWednesday, August 4, 2010
LONDON, August 5, 2010 - An upcoming sale by Russian aluminium giant Rusal, controlled by Oleg
Deripaska, of its stake in Norilsk Nickel (LSE: MNOD, OTCBB: NILSY) to the
Russian Government would end the long drawn-out conflict between the
principal shareholders of the world's largest producer of nickel and
palladium and increase the likelihood of the creation from it of a Russian
"national champion" in metals. Leading analysts believe that such a scenario
is likely to be welcomed by investors as increasing shareholder value.
Eurasia Group, a global political risk consultancy, understands that a
transaction would end the struggle for control of Norilsk Nickel, "which has
been a major market distraction ever since Deripaska acquired his stake in
April 2008". Analysts are convinced that "the irreconcilable positions of the
two parties suggests that the conflict will be resolved only when one exits
the company".
Mikhail Fedorov from Investcafe, an independent market analyst firm
based in Russia, agrees that reports of Deripasksa's likely exit from Norilsk
Nickel would be regarded by the market as a positive sign for both Norilsk
Nickel and Rusal itself.
Eurasia Group and Fedorov points out that Rusal's leverage remains
unacceptably high whilst the value of its mortgaged assets could not be
covered by its operating cashflows. According to Eurasia Group: "The proceeds
from the sale of Rusal's 25% stake in Norilsk - worth roughly $8 billion at
current market levels - would allow Rusal to pay off debt and appease the
company's creditors, and reduce pressure on the company's financial
performance stemming from recent ruble strength, and aluminium price
weakness."
Analysts expect that the change in Norilsk Nickel ownership would take
place within the next few months and consider this scenario to be a "win-win"
strategy for Rusal and Interros as well as for minority shareholders and the
Russian government tired by the protracted conflict between the companies'
major shareholders.
Alex Korshunov, +7(916)0717175, alex at morozovandpartners.com
Tags: August 5, London, Morozov & Partners, United Kingdom