Consolidation in AME’s Mobile Market Will Continue for Next Several Years, Finds Pyramid

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts -

In-country consolidation in the mobile market has already begun in Africa and the Middle East and will become a more important trend over the next few years, pushing incumbents to find new ways to protect their customer base, according to a new report from Pyramid Research (www.pyr.com), the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network (www.lightreading.com).

Three Is Company, Four Is a Crowd: Mobile Players Proliferate in AME examines the factors that we expect will drive consolidation over the coming years. We start by recapping the dynamics behind the increasing numbers of licenses and operators. The 17-page report then examines the degree of success of third, fourth, and fifth entrants in terms of subscription market share. A look at some of the successful strategies which incumbent operators are adopting to protect their customer base follows. Finally we examine the first case of in-country consolidation - and its likely implications for African mobile operators. Download an excerpt of this report here: www.pyramidresearch.com/downloads.htm?id=5&sc=PR092909_INAME1.7

Competition in mobile markets across Africa and the Middle East will intensify as new licenses continue to be made available in Africa, even though many late entrants struggle to establish a sustainable business where three or more networks are already in operation, notes Dearbhla McHenry, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. “Although third entrants in Africa and the Middle East have gained as much as 37 percent of their markets within three years, the picture for fourth and fifth operators is gloomier: our analysis suggests that market shares of 8.7 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, are more realistic targets,” she adds.

“Several factors determine whether a late entrant to a mobile market in Africa and the Middle East will overcome the odds and gain significant market share, as explained in this report,” says McHenry. “It is often the case that operators entering a market where another operator has recently launched will tend to find it difficult to establish an additional brand,” she explains. The region’s leading operators, however, are getting better at reducing churn and increasing loyalty. “International and regional operators, in particular, have an advantage in being able to implement best practices learned overseas - MTN, for instance, has experienced growing competition in many of its markets, has maintained a strong position, for instance in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria,” says McHenry.

At the end of July 2009, one of the first in-country mergers in the region took place in Sierra Leone. Market leader Africell agreed to buy Millicom-owned operator Tigo for an undisclosed sum. “We believe that this event may signal the start of a new trend, since several other operators look similarly vulnerable to acquisition,” says McHenry. “As a result, we believe in-country consolidation, as well as operators exiting markets, will be an increasingly common event over the coming five years,” she adds.

Three Is Company, Four Is a Crowd: Mobile Players Proliferate in AME is part of Pyramid Research’s Africa and the Middle East Telecom Insider report series. This report is priced at US$595 and can be purchased online here: www.pyramidresearch.com/store/ins_ame_090925.htm?sc=PR092909_INAME1.7 or by contacting Amalia Vega via email at avega@pyr.com.

For more information about Pyramid Research’s products and services, please visit www.pyr.com or contact us at info@pyr.com.

About Pyramid Research

Pyramid Research (www.pyr.com) offers practical solutions to the complex demands our clients face in the telecommunications, media and technology industries. Our analysis is uniquely positioned at the intersection of emerging markets, emerging technologies and emerging business models, powered by the bottom-up methodology of our market forecasts for over 100 countries - a distinction that has remained unmatched for more than 25 years. As the telecom research arm of the Light Reading Communications Network, Pyramid Research works with Heavy Reading, providing the communications industry’s most comprehensive market data, trusted research and insightful technology analysis.

About Light Reading

Founded in 2000, Light Reading (www.lightreading.com) is the leading online media, research, and focused event company serving the US$3 trillion worldwide communications market. Lightreading.com is the ultimate source for technology and financial analysis of the communications industry, leading the media sector in terms of traffic, content, and reputation. Light Reading’s research arms, Heavy Reading and Pyramid Research, provide the most comprehensive communications research, market data, and technology analysis in close to 100 markets around the world. Light Reading produces nearly 20 targeted communications events including TelcoTV, Ethernet Expo New York and Ethernet Expo London, The Tower Summit @ CTIA, and Optical Expo, as well as focused one-day events tailored for cable, mobile, and wireline executives. Light Reading was acquired by United Business Media in August 2005 and operates as a unit of TechWeb.

About TechWeb

TechWeb (techweb.com/aboutus), the global leader in business technology media, is an innovative business focused on serving the needs of technology decision-makers and marketers worldwide. TechWeb produces the most respected and consumed media brands in the business technology market. Today, more than 13.3 million* business technology professionals actively engage in our communities created around our global face-to-face events, Interop, Web 2.0, Black Hat, and VoiceCon; online resources such as the TechWeb Network, Light Reading, Intelligent Enterprise, InformationWeek.com, bMighty.com, and The Financial Technology Network; and the market leading, award-winning InformationWeek, TechNet Magazine, MSDN Magazine, and Wall Street & Technology magazines. TechWeb also provides end-to-end services including next-generation performance marketing, integrated media, research, and analyst services. TechWeb is a division of United Business Media, a global provider of news distribution and specialist information services with a market capitalization of more than US$2.5 billion.

*13.3 million business decision-makers: based on number of monthly connections

About United Business Media Limited

UBM (UBM.L) focuses on two principal activities: worldwide information distribution, targeting and monitoring; and, the development and monetization of B2B communities and markets. UBM’s businesses inform markets and serve professional commercial communities - from doctors to game developers, from journalists to jewelry traders, from farmers to pharmacists - with integrated events, online, print, and business information products. Our 6,500 staff in more than 30 countries are organized into specialist teams that serve these communities, bringing buyers and sellers together, helping them to do business and their markets to work effectively and efficiently. For more information, go to www.unitedbusinessmedia.com.

Press contact: Jennifer Baker +1-617-871-1910 jbaker@pyr.com

Source: Pyramid Research

Jennifer Baker, Pyramid Research, +1-617-871-1910, jbaker at pyr.com