OAG Releases its 10 Year Commercial Aircraft Fleets and Utilization Forecast

LONDON - Projected 4% Drop in Global Aircraft Utilization in 2009: North America
Worst Affected with 7% Decrease

- Asian Operators’ Market Share of Global Utilization to Increase 3% by
2018

- Aircraft Retirements to Peak in 2016 - 2017

In 2009 the average aircraft utilization for the world’s commercial fleet
is expected to drop by 4% compared to 2008, according to the latest
Commercial Aircraft Fleets and Utilization Forecast from OAG (
www.oagaviation.com), the world’s leading aviation data business.

This is revealed in OAG’s most recent study of the global MRO
(maintenance, repair and overhaul) service demand projection for the next
decade, developed in partnership with AeroStrategy. The utilization forecast,
which drives MRO demand, takes into consideration the significant global
downsizing in schedules frequency and capacity that have been filed with OAG
in the past six months. Global aircraft utilization typically grows at an
average of 3.4% per year.

John Weber, Managing Director, OAG Aviation, said: “Scheduled airline
frequency and capacity cutbacks made over the past six months will have a
significant impact on planned aircraft utilization, with a corresponding
short-term downturn in demand for MRO services. We are projecting a worldwide
drop of -4% in average aircraft utilization in 2009 compared to 2008, with
only modest recovery in 2010. Normal levels of aircraft utilization growth
are not expected to return until 2011.”

The regions worst affected this year by a reduction in aircraft
utilization will be North America (-7%) and Western Europe (-5%). Least
affected will be China, Eastern Europe, Africa, India and Latin America.
North American and European operators accounted for 61% of global aircraft
utilization in 2008. The forecast trend indicates a gradual shift of this
market dominance to other regions. By 2018, Asia is projected to increase its
share of the world’s global aircraft utilization by 2.8% to 25.4%, driving up
demand for MRO services in that region.

Over the next 10 years, OAG forecasts that aircraft retirements will peak
in 2016 - 1017 at double the average retirement rates of 2009 - 2013. The
global installed base of active aircraft will grow 38% by 2018 compared with
2008.

OAG’s Commercial Aircraft Fleet and Utilization Forecast is a 47-page
in-depth report tracking 10 year future trends. It is one of six reports
produced by OAG on the Commercial Aviation MRO (”CAMRO”) sector covering
airframe, engine, components, modifications and line/field maintenance.

To view or download a copy of the report’s executive summary and
illustrative graphs, please visit
www.oagaviation.com/aviation-reports/reports-camro.htm.

OAG, part of UBM Aviation (www.ubmaviation.com), provides
essential aviation workflow data and analytics sourced from its comprehensive
proprietary airline schedules, fleet and MRO databases. UBM Aviation is a
division of United Business Media Limited
(www.unitedbusinessmedia.com)

Notes to Editors

For media enquiries, or a copy of the Executive Summary, please contact:
Alison Pickering, Corporate Communications, UBM Aviation,
alison.pickering@ubmaviation.com +44(0)1582-695477

Source: UBM Aviation

For media enquiries, or a copy of the Executive Summary, please contact: Alison Pickering, Corporate Communications, UBM Aviation, alison.pickering at ubmaviation.com +44(0)1582-695477