Roskill Expects Global Niobium Demand to Recover Early

LONDON - New Report From Roskill Analyses Worldwide Niobium Supply and Demand

The Economics of Niobium (11th Edition) 2009

Demand for niobium has seen enormous growth in recent years. At about
58,000t contained Nb, processors’ shipments in 2007, reported by the TIC,
were double those in 2003. That continued into early 2008, with H1 shipments
up 18% on H1 2007 and 12% on H2 2007 (although primary production was down by
13%). The niobium market is not, however, immune to global economic turndown
and with consumers both reducing purchases and running down inventories,
total shipments for 2008 were probably little higher than in 2007. Demand in
H1 2009 will very likely be flat at best.

Global GDP and industrial production are expected to enter a recovery
phase in 2010. Metal markets will tend to begin re-stocking before that and
Roskill predicts that demand for niobium will pick up as early as Q3 2009 and
quickly return to a growth trend. Niobium producers are well-placed to supply
the world’s ferro-niobium needs for the foreseeable future. Several new
tantalum-niobium projects are also expected to become operational over the
next year or two.

Niobium demand to continue growing over the long term

The recent large increases in niobium consumption have not come as a
result of new applications. The principal markets - HSLA steels, stainless
steels and superalloys - are essentially the same as they have been for
years. Growth has come not only from the overall rise in global production of
these materials, but also from the greater penetration of niobium in markets
where it is already well-established and often irreplaceable.

HSLA steels, by far the largest application for niobium, are widely used
in automobiles, construction and natural gas linepipe, all market segments
that will return to long-term growth in a year or so. With the ongoing drive
to achieve weight reduction in both the automobile and construction sectors,
HSLA steels are likely to win further market share from mild steels.

The world’s appetite for energy will see demand for gas linepipe remain
healthy for many years to come. With the supply disruptions that have been
seen in Europe recently, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that
whole new transmission networks could be built. Demand for linepipe could
prove to be higher than previously forecasted. The HSLA steel grades required
for high-pressure linepipe cannot be made without niobium.

In the stainless steel industry, niobium is consumed mainly in ferritic
stainless and most notably that used for automobile exhausts. 2009 will not
be a good year in this market; vehicle production forecasts are grim and
Roskill expects total stainless steel demand to be nearly 20% down from its
2007 peak. Strong recovery will begin in 2010. In the longer term, this could
be a significant growth market for niobium, particularly if continuing
volatility in nickel prices leads to a large-scale and permanent switch from
the use of nickel-bearing austenitic stainless to nickel-free ferritic
steels.

There is good scope for niobium consumption to grow considerably in some
parts of the world. In 2008 the overall unit consumption of niobium in steel
was around 55-60g/t of steel produced. In the most highly developed countries
the figure was 100g/t or more, whereas in China only around 40g/t were
consumed. There would appear, therefore, to be significant potential for the
increased use of niobium. While, in 2008, about 10% of the steel produced
globally contained niobium, that share could rise to as much as 20% in
future.

Niobium prices to remain at current levels

Key characteristics of the niobium market are the important role played
by long-term contracts, which now cover about 95% of total sales, and highly
stable prices. From the early 1990s to the mid-2000s, the average export
price for Brazilian ferro-niobium remained within the range of
US$12,500-13,500/t contained Nb.

That changed in 2007, when prices for ferro-niobium and other niobium
products began to climb sharply. Average import prices for ferro-niobium
reported by major importing countries in 2008 were more than double those
seen in 2006. In the case of Japan, the average price rose from about
US$9,000/t (gross weight) to over US$22,000/t.

Roskill’s view is that the increase in price is not temporary. In real
terms, niobium prices had been falling for years at the same time as demand
was increasing and producers were expanding capacity, probably at
considerable expense. An adjustment to the benchmark price at some point was
inevitable. Niobium prices, particularly ferro-niobium prices, are likely to
remain at about the level seen in late 2008 and early 2009 and will display
little volatility in the coming years.

Even at the higher price, niobium inputs constitute a very small part of
total production costs in the main end-use markets, and the opportunities to
substitute for niobium in most applications are very limited.

Table of Contents

Page

1 Summary 1

2 Introduction 6
2.1 Properties of niobium 6
2.2 Occurrence of niobium 7
2.3 Reserves of niobium 8
2.4 Mining and processing of niobium raw materials 10
2.5 Processing of niobium products 14
2.5.1 Standard-grade ferro-niobium 14
2.5.2 Niobium oxide 15
2.5.3 Vacuum-grade ferro-niobium and nickel-niobium 17
2.5.4 Niobium metal, alloys and intermediates 18
2.5.5 Other niobium compounds 20
3 World production of niobium 22
3.1 Production of niobium raw materials 22
3.2 Production of downstream niobium products 25
4 Production and processing of niobium by country 27
4.1 Angola 27
4.2 Argentina 27
4.3 Armenia 27
4.4 Australia 27
4.4.1 Production of niobium in Australia 27
4.4.2 Past, current and potential producers of
niobium minerals 28
4.4.2.1 ABM Resources NL 28
4.4.2.2 Alkane Resources Ltd. 29
4.4.2.3 Glengarry Resources Ltd. 30
4.4.2.4 Haddington Resources Ltd. 30
4.4.2.5 Lynas Corp. Ltd. 32
4.4.2.6 Queensland Gold & Minerals Ltd. (QGM) 32
4.4.2.7 Talison Minerals (formerly Sons of Gwalia) 33
4.5 Austria 33
4.5.1 Processors of niobium in Austria 34
4.5.1.1 Plansee SE 34
4.5.1.2 Treibacher Industrie AG 34
4.6 Belgium 34
4.7 Bolivia 35
4.8 Brazil 35
4.8.1 Reserves of niobium in Brazil 35
4.8.2 Production of niobium minerals and products in Brazil 36
4.8.3 Exports of ferro-niobium from Brazil 38
4.8.4 Producers of niobium minerals and products in Brazil 39
4.8.4.1 Anglo American Brasil 39
4.8.4.2 Cia. Brasileira de Metalurgia e Mineracao (CBMM) 40
4.8.4.3 Cia. Industrial Fluminense 42
4.8.4.4 Paranapanema Group 42
4.8.4.5 Other producers 43
4.9 Burundi 44
4.1 Cameroon 45
4.11 Canada 45
4.11.1 Reserves of niobium in Canada 45
4.11.2 Production of niobium minerals in Canada 45
4.11.3 International trade in niobium in Canada 46
4.11.4 Past, current and potential producers of
niobium minerals and products in Canada 47
4.11.4.1 Avalon Ventures Ltd. 47
4.11.4.2 Commerce Resources Corp. 49
4.11.4.3 Cross Lake Minerals Ltd. 50
4.11.4.4 Houston Lake Mining Ltd. 50
4.11.4.5 Niobec 50
4.11.4.6 Niocan Inc. 51
4.11.4.7 Phoscan Chemical Corp. 53
4.11.4.8 Rocher Deboule Minerals Corp. 54
4.11.4.9 Sarissa Resources Inc. 54
4.11.4.10 SOQUEM 54
4.11.4.11 Tantalum Mining Corporation of Canada Ltd. (TANCO) 54
4.12 Chad 55
4.13 China 55
4.13.1 Reserves of niobium 55
4.13.2 Production of niobium minerals in China 56
4.13.3 International trade in niobium minerals and products 56
4.13.4 Current and potential producers of niobium
minerals in China 57
4.13.4.1 Gui-Family Tantalum & Niobium Ltd. 57
4.13.4.2 Jiangxi Jinfeng Mining Co. Ltd. 57
4.13.4.3 Limu Non-Ferrous Metal Co. 57
4.13.4.4 Minning Tantalum-Niobium Mining Development 58
4.13.4.5 Xinjiang Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Corp. 58
4.13.4.6 Other producers 58
4.13.5 Processors of niobium in China 59
4.13.5.1 Conghua Tantalum & Niobium Smeltery 59
4.13.5.2 Jiangxi Yizhong Nonferrous Metal Plant 59
4.13.5.3 Jiujiang TaNbRe’s Smeltery 59
4.13.5.4 Lingguang Electronic Chemical Material Technology Co. 59
4.13.5.5 Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co. Ltd. 60
4.13.5.6 Shizhuishan Jinlian 60
4.13.5.7 Yifeng Guizu 60
4.13.5.8 Zhuzhou Cemented Carbide Works 61
4.13.5.9 Other processors 61
4.14 Congo Brazzaville 61
4.15 Cote d’Ivoire 61
4.16 Democratic Republic of Congo 62
4.17 Egypt 63
4.17.1 Tantalum Egypt JSC 63
4.18 Equatorial Guinea 65
4.19 Estonia 65
4.19.1 AS Silmet 65
4.2 Ethiopia 66
4.21 Finland 66
4.22 France 66
4.23 Gabon 67
4.24 Germany 68
4.24.1 Processors of niobium in Germany 68
4.24.1.1 GfE 68
4.24.1.2 Freiberger NE-Metall GmbH 68
4.24.1.3 WC Heraeus GmbH 68
4.24.1.4 H.C. Starck 68
4.25 Ghana 69
4.26 Greenland 69
4.26.1 Angus & Ross plc 70
4.26.2 New Millennium Resources NL 70
4.27 Guyane 70
4.28 India 71
4.29 Japan 71
4.3 Kazakhstan 72
4.30.1 Reserves of niobium in Kazakhstan 72
4.30.2 Producers and processors of niobium in Kazakhstan 73
4.30.2.1 Belogorsky Mining-Concentrating Combine 73
4.30.2.2 Irtysh Chemical-Metallurgical Plant (IKhMZ) 74
4.30.2.3 Ulba Metallurgical Plant (UMP) 75
4.31 Kyrgyzstan 76
4.32 Madagascar 76
4.33 Malawi 77
4.33.1 Globe Metals and Mining 77
4.34 Malaysia 77
4.35 Mongolia 78
4.36 Morocco 79
4.37 Mozambique 79
4.37.1 Production of niobium minerals in Mozambique 79
4.37.2 Producers of niobium minerals in Mozambique 80
4.37.2.1 Fleming Family & Partners 80
4.37.2.2 Other producers 80
4.38 Namibia 81
4.38.1 Reserves of niobium in Namibia 81
4.38.2 Production and producers of niobium minerals in Namibia 82
4.39 Nigeria 83
4.39.1 Production of niobium minerals in Nigeria 83
4.4 Portugal 85
4.41 Russia 85
4.41.1 Reserves of niobium in Russia 85
4.41.2 Production of niobium minerals in Russia 86
4.41.3 Past, current and potential producers of niobium
mineral in Russia 87
4.41.3.1 Alrosa 87
4.41.3.2 Lovozero mining-concentrating combine (Lovozero
GOK, LGOK) 87
4.41.3.3 Malyshevsky Rudo Upravlenie 88
4.41.3.4 Novoorlovsky GOK 88
4.41.3.5 JSC Stalmag 88
4.41.3.6 TechnoInvest Alliance 89
4.41.3.7 Vishnevsky GOK 89
4.41.3.8 Zabaikalsky GOK 89
4.41.4 Processors of niobium in Russia 90
4.41.4.1 Kirovo-Chepetsk Mechanical Plant 90
4.41.4.2 Kluchevsky Ferroalloys Plant 90
4.41.4.3 Solikamsk Magnesium Plant (SMZ) 91
4.41.4.4 JSC Uralredmet 92
4.42 Rwanda 92
4.43 Saudi Arabia 94
4.43.1 Tertiary Minerals plc 94
4.43.2 Other deposits 95
4.44 Sierra Leone 96
4.45 Somalia 96
4.46 South Africa 97
4.47 Spain 97
4.48 Sweden 98
4.49 Switzerland 98
4.5 Tanzania 98
4.51 Thailand 99
4.51.1 Production of niobium-bearing minerals in Thailand 99
4.51.2 Producers and processors of niobium 99
4.51.2.1 H.C. Starck (Thailand) Co. Ltd. 99
4.51.2.2 Thailand Smelting and Refining Co. (Thaisarco) 100
4.52 Uganda 100
4.53 UK 102
4.54 Ukraine 103
4.55 USA 103
4.55.1 Reserves of niobium in the USA 103
4.55.2 International trade in niobium minerals and products
in the USA 104
4.55.3 Defense National Stockpile Center (DNSC) 104
4.55.4 Processors of niobium in the USA 105
4.55.4.1 ATI Wah Chang 105
4.55.4.2 Cabot Supermetals 105
4.55.4.3 Reading Alloys Inc. 106
4.55.4.4 Shieldalloy Metallurgical Corp. (SMC) 106
4.55.4.5 H.C. Starck Inc. 107
4.56 Venezuela 107
4.57 Zambia 107
4.58 Zimbabwe 108
5 International trade in niobium minerals and products 110
5.1 International trade in ferro-niobium 110
5.2 International trade in niobium minerals 113
5.3 International trade in other niobium products 116
6 Consumption of niobium 117
6.1 Total consumption of niobium 117
6.2 Consumption of niobium by form and application 118
6.3 Consumption of niobium by region/country 119
6.3.1 Brazil 121
6.3.2 China 122
6.3.3 Japan 122
6.3.4 USA 123
6.4 Outlook for niobium demand 124
7 Use of niobium in ferrous metallurgy 126
7.1 Use of niobium in alloy steels 126
7.1.1 Strengthening mechanisms for steel 126
7.1.1.1 Grain refinement 127
7.1.1.2 Precipitation hardening 128
7.1.2 Use of niobium in high-strength,
low-alloy (HSLA) steels 130
7.1.2.1 Linepipe steels 133
7.1.2.2 Automotive steels 138
7.1.2.3 Structural applications 141
7.1.2.4 Reinforcing bars 142
7.1.2.5 Pressure vessel steels 143
7.1.2.6 High-strength steel castings 143
7.1.3 Use of niobium in full-alloy structural steels 144
7.1.4 Production of HSLA steels 144
7.1.4.1 Outlook for niobium use in HSLA steels 145
7.2 Use of niobium in stainless and heat-resisting steels 146
7.2.1 Types of stainless steel 146
7.2.2 Stainless steel production and markets 152
7.2.2.1 Stainless steel production 152
7.2.2.2 Stainless steel production capacity 155
7.2.2.3 Consumption of stainless steel 157
7.2.2.4 Markets for stainless steel 160
7.2.2.5 Outlook for niobium use in stainless steels 163
7.3 Use of niobium in interstitial-free steels 163
7.4 Use of niobium in carbon steels 164
7.4.1 Production of carbon steels 165
7.4.2 Markets for carbon steels 166
7.5 Use of niobium in other alloy steels 168
7.5.1 Tool steels 168
7.5.2 Rail steels 169
7.6 Use of niobium in cast iron 170
8 Use of niobium in non-ferrous alloys 171
8.1 High-performance alloys 171
8.1.1 Nickel-based alloys 174
8.1.2 Cobalt-based alloys 176
8.1.3 Iron-based alloys 176
8.1.4 Production and consumption of high-performance alloys 176
8.1.4.1 Aerospace industry trends 178
8.1.4.2 Non-aerospace trends 181
8.2 Use of niobium in titanium alloys 184
8.3 Use of niobium in zirconium alloys 185
8.4 Use of niobium in other alloys 187
9 Use of niobium metal and niobium-based alloys 189
9.1 Use of niobium-based alloys in superconductors 189
9.1.1 Superconductor technology development 189
9.1.2 Manufacturers of niobium superconductors 191
9.1.3 Applications for superconductors 192
9.1.3.1 Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) 193
9.1.3.2 High-energy physics 194
9.1.3.3 Electricity generation, storage and transmission 195
9.1.3.4 Nuclear fusion research 196
9.1.3.5 Magnetic levitation and propulsion systems 196
9.1.3.6 Industrial cyclotrons and synchrotrons 197
9.1.3.7 High-intensity magnetic separators 197
9.1.3.8 Electronics 198
9.1.4 Markets for superconductors and demand for niobium 198
9.2 Use of niobium-aluminium alloys 199
9.3 Use of niobium-titanium alloys 201
9.4 Use of niobium-zirconium alloys 201
9.5 Use of niobium-hafnium alloys 202
9.6 Use of other niobium alloys 203
9.7 Use of niobium metal 203
9.7.1 Cathodic protection 203
9.7.2 Surgical implants 204
9.7.3 Body jewellery 204
9.7.4 Electronic devices 204
9.7.4.1 Capacitors 204
9.7.4.2 Other electronic devices 206
9.7.5 Furnaces and other high-temperature
manufacturing equipment 206
9.7.6 Coinage 206
9.7.7 Radioisotopes 207
10 Use of niobium chemicals 208
10.1 Use of niobium chemicals in optical glass and enamels 209
10.2 Use of niobium chemicals in electronics
and opto-electronics 210
10.3 Other uses for niobium chemicals 212
11 Niobium prices 217
11.1 Prices of ferro-niobium 217
11.2 Prices of other niobium products 220
11.3 Prices of niobium-bearing minerals 221

The Economics of Niobium (11th Edition 2009) is available at GBP2400 / US
$5000 / 4000 Euros from Roskill Information Services Ltd, 27a Leopold Road,
London Sw19 7BB, England.

Contact: Email: info@roskill.co.uk

Source: Roskill Information Services

Roskill Information Services Ltd, 27a Leopold Road, London Sw19 7BB, England. Tel: +44-20-8944-0066, Fax +44-20-8947-9568, Email: info at roskill.co.uk