Deloitte Research's Third Quarter Global Economic Outlook Examines Sustainability of Growth in World's Major Markets
By Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, PRNEMonday, August 2, 2010
NEW YORK, August 3, 2010 - In the third quarter issue of the Global Economic Outlook, part of the
Deloitte 20/20 series (www.deloitte.com/2020), Deloitte Research
examines the current economic environment and, in particular, the strength
and sustainability of growth in the global markets.
Highlights of the Q3 issue:
- Examines the difference of opinion between Europe and U.S. policymakers on the role of fiscal policy in the economic recovery and the rate at which deficits should be reduced in order to improve economic performance of the markets. - The weak job and housing markets of the U.S. economy point to a disappointing economic recovery so far, but some positive signs remain. Deloitte Research believes the U.S. economy will likely continue to grow and avoid a double-dip. - Although China continues to grow rapidly, several factors could affect the sustainability of this growth, including consumer price inflation, property prices, labor unrest, and exchange rate policy. - Brazil is experiencing strong consumer-led economic growth, although inflation is higher than desired. In the long term, Brazil's fortunes will likely depend on a mix of good policy and a strong global economy. - The recovery in Europe is on track. Economic activity has rebounded faster than expected, spurred on by a weaker currency and fast-growing external demand. Against international pressure to continue stimulating domestic demand, politicians are working to bring spending under control, which should help the Eurozone sustain growth in the long- term. - In Russia, economic activity has picked up in recent months, fueled by external demand for commodity exports and a recovery in domestic demand. However, Russia's reliance on the energy sector remains a key macroeconomic risk, weighing on the country's long-term growth prospects. - Japan's economy is advancing faster than anticipated, with this improvement triggering an upward revision of growth forecasts. However, Japan's continuing dependence on exports and weak domestic demand means that growth at current levels is likely not sustainable. - The United Kingdom is switching from a period of growth driven by government and the consumer, to one led by exports, capital spending, and industrial output. Fiscal tightening is likely to slow the recovery, at least in the short term. However, a more aggressive plan for fiscal consolidation has helped to boost the UK's credibility with bond investors and the ratings agencies. The most likely outlook remains a sluggish and erratic, but continuing, recovery. - Higher than anticipated growth in the manufacturing, mining, and agricultural sectors heightened the euphoria around India's resilience against the global economic downturn. Much of India's near-term economic fortunes will depend on the monsoons. Less rainfall than expected would negatively impact the agricultural sector, which accounts for 15 percent of the country's national income, and lead to higher inflation.
QUOTE
Attributed to Ira Kalish, Director of Global Economics, Deloitte
Research, part of Deloitte Services LP in the United States
"A global economic recovery continues to advance, but the strength of
this growth is uncertain in the world's biggest markets: the United States,
Europe, and China. While there have been a number of positive indications
that markets worldwide are growing, until these largest economies attain
sustainable growth, the strength and stamina of the global recovery will
remain questionable."
For additional quotes and to read the full report, please visit
www.deloitte.com/economicoutlook.
Deloitte Research is a part of Deloitte Services LP in the United States.
About Deloitte
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK
private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each
of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see
www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal
structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.
Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services
to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally
connected network of member firms in more than 140 countries, Deloitte brings
world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients succeed
wherever they operate. Deloitte's approximately 169,000 professionals are
committed to becoming the standard of excellence.
About Deloitte Research
Deloitte Research, a part of Deloitte Services LP in the United States,
identifies, analyzes, and explains the major issues driving today's business
dynamics and shaping tomorrow's global marketplace. From provocative points
of view about strategy and organizational change to straight talk about
economics, regulation and technology, Deloitte Research delivers innovative,
practical insights companies can use to improve their bottom-line
performance. Operating through a network of dedicated research professionals,
senior consulting practitioners of the various member firms of Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu, academics and technology specialists, Deloitte Research
exhibits deep industry knowledge, functional understanding, and commitment to
thought leadership. In boardrooms and business journals, Deloitte Research is
known for bringing new perspective to real-world concerns.
Christine Selph, External Relations, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, Tel: +1-212-492-4517, Mobile: +1-347-429-2891, cselph at deloitte.com
Tags: August 3, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, New York, United Kingdom