Demand for Gold in China to Double Within Ten Years
By World Gold Council, PRNESaturday, March 27, 2010
BEIJING, LONDON and NEW YORK, March 29, 2010 -
- Latest World Gold Council Analysis Suggests Medium Term Outlook
for Chinese Gold Mining Supply Will be Challenging
- Chinese Gold Demand Growth Expected to Outstrip Domestic Supply
Chinese demand for gold is set to double in tonnage terms within just ten
years according to the latest World Gold Council (WGC) analysis. Chinese gold
consumption was worth more than US$14billion in 2009[1], which is equivalent
to 11% of global gold demand. Launched today, Gold in the Year of the Tiger
provides an outlook for all aspects of gold's supply and demand fundamentals
in China.
Marcus Grubb, Managing Director, Investment at WGC, said:
"The excitement generated by the Chinese economic growth story is not
new. However, clarifying the impact of China's GDP growth trajectory on the
outlook for the Chinese gold market has been elusive - until today.
"Now one of the world's largest economies, China has already rapidly
become a prominent gold market. However, our analysis confirms that
significant untapped growth potential exists in the Chinese gold market. In
China, if gold demand continues to accelerate and becomes more comparable
with other major markets, WGC expects it to double in tonnage terms within
the next decade, which would represent annual gold demand of approximately
US$29 billion at year end 2009 average prices."
Over the past five years, demand for gold has increased at an
average rate of 13% per annum in China.
WGC's key findings were:
- Chinese consumption intensity[2] lags other major markets
substantially. If gold were consumed in China at the same per capita
rate as in India, Hong Kong or Saudi Arabia, annual Chinese demand
could increase by 100 to 4,000 tonnes in the jewellery sector alone.
- Total gold investment demand in China has grown in line with
the country's GDP and population during this period and WGC expects
this trend to continue going forward.
- While China is the world's sixth largest official holder of
gold, its gold reserves currently account for less than 2% of total
reserves and, therefore, remain low by international standards. Even
adding 10% from its current level would translate to an additional 100
tonnes of gold offtake.
- While gold demand is accelerating, WGC expects Chinese
supply growth to be challenging in the medium to long term; and is
likely to decline in the future.
- During the last decade, Chinese gold mining producers have
stepped up gold production by 84%, however its known reserves account
for just 4% of total known global gold reserves[3]. Assuming these
figures are correct, WGC estimates suggest that China could exhaust its
known gold mining reserves in six years from now.
- This supply trend is only likely to reverse if China, which
is still relatively undiscovered in terms of global exploration
budgets, were to attract significant capital investment for
exploration.
Eily Ong, Investment Research Manager at WGC and author of the report,
said:
"Our analysis confirms the potential for an increasing imbalance in
supply and demand in China. Gold demand has already outpaced Chinese
production growth since 1992, even before the deregulation of private
ownership a decade later. However, our analysis shows that if gold demand
were to continue to increase so markedly, domestic supply would be unable to
keep pace. Whatever the outcome, China's outlook will almost certainly have
implications for the global gold market."
For a copy of the report please follow this link:
www.mediacentre.gold.org
Notes to Editors:
World Gold Council
World Gold Council's mission is to stimulate and sustain the demand for
gold and to create enduring value for its stakeholders. It is funded by the
world's leading gold mining companies.
For further information visit: www.gold.org.
[1] At 2009 average prices of US$972.35/oz
[2] Intensity of gold consumption is measured by looking at each
country's gold demand per capita versus its gross domestic product (GDP) per
capita.
[3] According to figures from the US Geological Survey
For a summary of the report please contact: gold@capitalmsl.com
For further Information, please contact:
WGC
Matt Graydon, Director - Corporate Communications, World Gold
Council, on + 44(0)207-826-4716, or matt.graydon@gold.org
Stephanie Mackrell, Head of Media Relations, World Gold
Council, on +44(0)207-826-4763, or stephanie.mackrell@gold.org
MS&L
London: Clare Allison, + 44(0)207-307-5342, or
clare.allison@capitalmsl.com
Beijing: Jenna Qian, +86-10-6510-22228, or
jenna.qian@mslworldwide.com
New York: David Schreader, +1-212-468-4313, or
david.schraeder@mslworldwide.com
Dubai: James Madsen, +971-4-367-6175, or
james.madsen@capitalmsl.com
For further Information, please contact: WGC: Matt Graydon, Director - Corporate Communications, World Gold; Council, on + 44(0)207-826-4716, or matt.graydon at gold.org; Stephanie Mackrell, Head of Media Relations, World Gold Council, on +44(0)207-826-4763, or stephanie.mackrell at gold.org; MS&L: London: Clare Allison, + 44(0)207-307-5342, or clare.allison at capitalmsl.com; Beijing: Jenna Qian, +86-10-6510-22228, or jenna.qian at mslworldwide.com; New York: David Schreader, +1-212-468-4313, or david.schraeder at mslworldwide.com; Dubai: James Madsen, +971-4-367-6175, or james.madsen at capitalmsl.com
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