Middle East Opinion on Obama’s First 100 Days

DUBAI - A recent survey by the market research company Real Opinions in the Middle East on the first 100 days since US President Obama was inaugurated shows that although the image of the US and leadership on the global stage has improved, performance on issues closer to home in the Middle East are dividing opinion.

There is success for Obama with overall opinion of the US from a Middle Eastern perspective improving by 42%. This is backed up with 35% believing the leadership of US on the global stage has also improved while 43% believe there is no change and just 9% believe it is actually worse. There are also encouraging signs on the subject of the economy with more than twice as many than his predecessor believing they are more confident with the global economy recovering under his leadership (37% improved, 15% worse).

However, in terms of key issues such as Middle East stability, the opinion is more closely divided with 20% believing it has improved and 14% believing it has become worse.

Dan Healy, the CEO of Real Opinions who conducted the survey commented ‘Breaking some of these results down to the areas directly impacted by recent events such as those in the Palestinian Autonomous Area (PAA), 19% believed Middle East stability has worsened, 17% believe it has improved while just over half believe it has not changed (54%). When it came to the issue of the Palestinian & Israeli situation, 30% in PAA thought this was worse under Obama’s leadership, which is twice as many as those who thought it had improved on 14%. For half of these respondents, they don’t believe there is any change between Presidents Bush and Obama.

Healy added, “The overall acceptance of the image of U.S. has greatly improved but in terms of some key issues in the Middle East there is very little change. I think it’s safe to say that under Bush’s leadership and policies the goodwill and the favourable disposition towards the U.S. in the Middle East eroded away and now it’s a new chapter, like a love affair, rekindled, very much awakened and I think it’s a window of opportunity to leverage this favouritism in terms of policies to tackle some of these issues.”

Research on the eve of the US presidential election showed the Middle East very much in favour of Obama over his then rival McCain in terms of being perceived as the best person capable of handling these key regional issues. Healy added “With the election of Obama, many have raised expectations in the Middle East of a change being made to policies and this appears to be transferring into dissatisfaction for some with the perception of little change being made by the time of this study.”

On the eve of these results being released was the announcement by US officials that leaders of Egypt, Israel and Palestinians have been invited for talks in Washington in a new push for Middle East peace.

Healy commented ‘Overall, these results suggest there is certainly a dramatic and favourable image change for the US in the Middle East with Obama as leader over the last 100 days. In terms of policy on some key Middle Eastern issues, there is certainly room for an improvement and this might be about to change with this invitation for talks.’

Research Methodology

The survey was conducted in both Arabic and English online from 10th to 20th April with n=2,789 respondents in the Middle East. Respondents were from the Real Opinion online panel and the results have approximately a 2%+/- margin of error with a CI of 95%.

About Real Opinions

Real Opinions is a full-service market research company, specialising in online media, with global and Middle East research expertise and best practice. Based in Dubai and London, Real Opinions has proven ability to help strategically guide communication, insight and assess the effectiveness of campaigns.

Real Opinions is an accredited member of ESOMAR, an international organisation for market research. For more information about us and this study, please visit www.real-opinions.com

Q. The US President Barack Obama will soon have been in office for 100 days and this is often a time to assess a political leader’s progress. Please rate how you believe the following has changed under his leadership. Leadership of US on global stage Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 35 52 35 23 35 47 25 39 Worse 9 8 12 8 6 6 10 9 No change 43 30 45 51 45 44 51 41 Don’t know 13 10 8 18 14 3 14 11 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 59 32 31 33 32 38 36 Worse 3 2 11 15 11 13 10 No change 32 59 47 37 44 47 39 Don’t know 5 7 11 15 13 3 15 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 40 25 33 39 29 Worse 10 7 5 21 0 No change 40 54 46 29 43 Don’t know 10 14 15 11 29 Palestinian & Israeli situation Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 12 13 8 10 10 16 12 17 Worse 21 15 20 23 22 13 25 13 No change 58 60 67 56 60 63 55 61 Don’t know 9 12 6 11 8 9 9 9 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 16 9 14 7 14 13 11 Worse 11 18 24 33 30 22 22 No change 62 68 55 56 51 59 58 Don’t know 11 5 8 4 5 6 9 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 8 11 15 18 0 Worse 15 19 21 26 0 No change 71 62 54 45 86 Don’t know 6 7 10 11 14 Iran nuclear issue Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 28 28 35 30 25 34 25 28 Worse 13 11 14 10 12 25 13 9 No change 43 46 41 36 45 34 48 46 Don’t know 17 15 10 24 17 6 14 17 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 46 20 30 44 28 31 23 Worse 11 11 13 11 20 19 14 No change 32 50 41 41 35 38 46 Don’t know 11 18 17 4 17 13 17 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 36 28 38 39 71 Worse 7 14 5 5 0 No change 42 42 38 29 14 Don’t know 15 16 18 26 14 Middle East stability Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 20 20 31 13 15 22 17 26 Worse 14 11 6 13 17 9 16 9 No change 56 58 55 59 59 69 58 59 Don’t know 10 11 8 15 10 0 9 6 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 38 14 22 26 17 25 21 Worse 8 14 15 26 19 28 14 No change 46 66 53 33 54 38 53 Don’t know 8 7 10 15 9 9 12 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 22 29 10 29 14 Worse 14 11 23 18 14 No change 58 52 51 45 57 Don’t know 6 8 15 8 14 Confidence with global economy recovering Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 37 46 37 28 38 41 35 37 Worse 15 10 8 15 14 16 18 19 No change 33 31 37 30 35 34 32 28 Don’t know 16 13 18 27 13 9 15 17 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 41 27 35 37 41 50 37 Worse 5 14 19 30 10 16 15 No change 35 41 31 19 30 25 32 Don’t know 19 18 15 15 18 9 16 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 40 26 33 50 14 Worse 14 15 21 21 14 No change 33 43 36 16 43 Don’t know 13 16 10 13 29 Overall opinion of US Total UAE Bahrain Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Base: All 2789 334 51 191 487 32 251 54 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 42 53 49 37 42 53 39 44 Worse 10 9 6 7 9 6 10 6 No change 30 25 35 30 31 31 34 39 Don’t know 19 14 10 26 18 9 18 11 Lebanon Libya Morocco Oman PAA Qatar Saudi Base: All 37 44 288 27 116 32 538 respondents Minimum % % % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 51 30 37 33 44 44 41 Worse 3 7 13 33 12 16 10 No change 24 32 31 15 23 19 30 Don’t know 22 32 19 19 21 22 19 Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen Iran Base: All 72 151 39 38 7 respondents Minimum % % % % % Base: 20 (**), Small Base: 50 (*) Improved 40 40 46 50 57 Worse 6 9 18 8 0 No change 32 32 18 21 29 Don’t know 22 18 18 21 14

Inquiries Dan Healy CEO - Real Opinions UK: +44(0)7509038788 inquiry@real-opinions.com

Source: Real Opinions

Inquiries: Dan Healy, CEO - Real Opinions, UK: +44(0)7509038788, inquiry at real-opinions.com