Union Bancaire Privée's Outlook for 2011 / 'Owner or Lender?'By Ubp - Union Bancaire Privee, PRNE
Monday, November 22, 2010
GENEVA, November 23, 2010 - Will it be better to invest in equities or bonds in 2011?
Growth prospects in emerging countries are strong and the US economy is
improving gradually, so, coupled with the renewed monetary stimulus, we have
a positive outlook for financial assets, especially equities. This
combination should favour shareholders over debt holders in 2011. We expect a
gradual economic recovery in the G7, but Pandora's box may have been opened,
letting loose risks upon the world.
Asian and emerging countries to lead sustained growth in 2011
According to the macroeconomic analysis of Patrice Gautry,
UBP's Chief Economist, Asia will remain the world's most dynamic economic
region. A structural growth trend is in place in emerging countries,
underpinned by domestic consumption and investment. Although long-lasting
adjustments are likely to hold back the G7 economies, loose financial
conditions should support a progressive recovery in credit and restore a more
consistent trend in consumer spending. Three countries continue to appear as
regional champions in terms of their contribution to world GDP and exports,
namely the United States, Germany and China.
In the midst of this gradual recovery, 2011 should see a
stronger, but lop-sided economic world. "The global economy remains
unbalanced, with a string of recurrent crisis. Economic policy will be a
major source of risk in 2011 and should be less synchronised than in the
past," said Patrice Gautry. Central banks have opened Pandora's box,
unleashing risks upon the world economy. He continued, "As we emerge from the
financial crisis, the economy is drawing strength from the corporate world."
Investment strategy: monetary policies should favour equities
UBP's investment strategy takes into account the prevailing
major economic trends and reflects budgetary and monetary policies.
Christophe Bernard, Head of Investment Strategy at UBP, advocates being a
shareholder instead of a debt holder, as long as monetary policy remains
accommodative and corporate margins high. He recommends focusing on global
firms with strong brands, high sustainable returns and exposure to emerging
Emerging markets have rebounded and continue to benefit from
large inflows and sustained economic growth. "UBP's preferred emerging
markets are Russia and China, and we also recommend keeping a strategic
exposure to emerging debt denominated in local currencies" said Christophe
Bernard. He added, "We favour the energy and financial sectors, and real
assets over nominal assets, with our preferred commodities being oil, copper
Alternatives: hedge fund industry still nascent
Interest in the alternative asset management industry is
improving, as the tide is turning, with assets under management being close
to an all-time high. Larry Morgenthal, CIO of Alternative Investments at UBP
Asset Management, believes that reports of the demise of hedge funds are
premature. He is quite positive about the industry and believes hedge funds
remain an attractive proposition: they provide diversification benefits and
they have strong alpha generation potential.
With respect to the various hedge fund strategies, Larry
Morgenthal goes on to say, "Allocating between hedge fund strategies is in
some respects like dating - we have had a great relationship with credit, are
having an affair with long-short equity and think that emerging markets could
be marriage material, while macro is like an old flame - not large in the
picture now but one we expect to get back together with in the future."
About Union Bancaire Privée
Union Bancaire Privée, UBP SA (UBP) is based in Geneva and is
one of Switzerland's leading private banks. Active in the field of asset
management for both private and institutional clients and with a very solid
balance sheet, the Bank had some CHF 72 billion (USD 66.5 billion) in assets
under management as at 30 June 2010. UBP employs some 1,200 people in over 20
locations worldwide and provides a complete range of innovative investment
products and services, both in traditional and alternative asset management,
with the aim of achieving a high performance and protecting clients' capital.
For further information Jérôme Koechlin Head of Corporate Communications Tel. +41-58-819-26-40 e-mail email@example.com Rohan Sant Press relations: Tel +41-58-819-26-23 e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org
For further information: Jérôme Koechlin, Head of Corporate Communications, Tel. +41-58-819-26-40, e-mail jko at ubp.ch, Rohan Sant; Press relations: Tel +41-58-819-26-23, e-mail sar at ubp.ch
Tags: Geneva, November 23, Switzerland, Ubp - Union Bancaire Privee, United States of America