New RISI Global 15-Year Packaging Outlooks Show Containerboard Demand Growth to Average 1.4% in North America, 5.6% in Asia and 6.6% in China Through 2024

BOSTON -

Forecast Highlights:

North America - Bans on plastic bags not expected to lead to revival in paper bag markets, as reusable bags are quickly gaining a foothold in many markets. - Competition from alternative packaging products will continue to restrain domestic boxboard demand growth for the next 15 years - no more than 3% demand growth by 2024. Asia - Asian boxboard consumption ratio to favor virgin grades as the booming middle class in the region will buy more high-quality packaged products. - Major producers in the region will enjoy better profit margin on virgin containerboard grades. New capacity from China will also concentrate on the virgin grades. Europe - Despite 4% annual growth over the next 15 years, limited investment on the Eastern Europe cartonboard capacity base should result in net imports increasing by 60% relative to 2008 level. - Construction of two new recycled containerboard mills in eastern Europe is not expected to significantly threaten the western European suppliers as the region is expected to continue to run substantial trade deficit.

RISI, the leading information provider for the global forest products industry, today released its global paper packaging 15-year forecasts. Today’s reports provide key data and analysis on end use market growth, supply/demand balance, price forecasts, capacity removals, competitive costs, and trade for cartonboard, containerboard, boxboard, and kraft paper markets for Europe, North America, and Asia.

North America

According to Ken Waghorne, VP of RISI Paper Packaging, “The downward trend in the merchandise trade deficit will allow North American containerboard demand to grow 1.4% per year on average for the next 15 years, doubling the growth rate that was recorded during the last 15 years. In addition, US kraftliner exports are expected to grow solidly from 2010 to 2024. This growth will be a result of steady Latin American demand growth, increased US competitiveness and an abundance of softwood fiber in the USA.”

Waghorne continued, “Both kraft paper and boxboard markets in North America will remain flat over the length of the forecast as they face increased competition from alternative packaging options.”

Asia

“China containerboard consumption will grow at 6.6% annually during our forecast period, reaching almost 84 million tones by the end of 2024,” said Alex He, Economist Asia Paper Packaging. He continued, “China containerboard capacity will also see continued growth, with an annual increase averaging 6.3% from 2010-2024. However, both China, and the remaining Asian markets will be relatively small net exporters of recycled containerboard during this period.”

Europe

Orifjon Abidov, Economist of RISI’s European Paper Packaging Service said, “Despite their environmentally friendly image, recycled grades are expected to lose market share in the western European cartonboard market, as recycled board prices will be rising relative to virgin grades. This price escalation will be due to relentless upward pressure on real recovered paper prices.” He continued, “On the containerboard side, continued volatility in recovered paper markets is expected to create high variability in prices with testliner expected to gain market share from kraftliner during weak market conditions and the opposite effect under tighter market conditions.”

For More Information or to Subscribe

Today’s outlooks are the “North American Paper Packaging 15-Year Forecast,” “European Paper Packaging 15-Year Forecast” and the “Asian Paper Packaging 15-Year Forecast.” The outlooks highlight the details of the shifts in paper packaging consumption and production among the North America, European, and Asian markets, and detail the factors and impacts throughout the paper industry.

RISI publishes annual 15-year outlooks, quarterly 5-year outlooks and, monthly 2-year outlooks (or monitors). The forecasts released today cover the paper packaging markets. RISI also produces 15 year outlooks on graphic paper, fiber, recovered paper, and tissue markets.

For more information please click here and visit: www.risi.com/paperpackaging.

To request a detailed prospectus, please visit out contact us page for appropriate global contact information: www.risiinfo.com/pages/contactus

About RISI

RISI is the leading information provider for the global forest products industry. The company works with clients in the pulp and paper, wood products, wood biomass, tissue, timber, non-wovens, printing and publishing and financial services industries to help them make better decisions.

Headquartered in Boston (Bedford), Massachusetts, RISI operates offices in Brussels, Belgium; Atlanta, Georgia; San Francisco, California; Portland, Oregon; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Shanghai, China; Singapore; Helsinki, Finland; and Charlottesville, Virginia.

More information can be found at www.risi.com.

Press Contact Dan Blenk, RISI Marketing Director 4 Alfred Circle Bedford, MA 01730 Tel: +1-781-734-8942 dblenk@risi.com

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Source: RISI

Dan Blenk, RISI Marketing Director, +1-781-734-8942, dblenk at risi.com; Logo: https://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20080521/NEW122LOGO